Iran and the United
States sign an interim accord with a June 30 deadline for a final agreement,
but the U.S. keeps “all options open” if any aspect of the deal is ignored. By
JOHN CHERIAN
IT was evident for some time now that a
“nuclear deal” between the United States and Iran was imminent. Reports based
on official briefings from both Washington and Tehran in the last couple of
months had suggested that only a few differences remained to be ironed out.
Finally, after hard bargaining over details in the eleventh hour, an interim
deal was announced in the Swiss city of Lausanne on April 2. The deadline for
the final agreement has been set for June 30. Neither the reelection of
Benjamin Netanyahu as the Prime Minister of Israel in March nor the threat of
Republicans in the U.S. Congress had any negative impact on the outcome of the
nuclear talks.
The talks held by P5+1 (the five
permanent members of the United Nations and Germany) with Iran were also in
favour of a quick nuclear deal. Although the P5+1 is formally part of the
negotiations, it is U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign
Minster Mohammad Javad Zarif who did most of the talking for more than two
years. The technical aspects were dealt with by the U.S. Energy Secretary
Ernest Moniz and Iran’s energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi. Both of them are trained
nuclear physicists.
Under the draft nuclear accord, Iran has
agreed to reduce by around 40 per cent of the centrifuges that it can operate
to produce enriched uranium and to substantially cut its stockpile of
low-enriched uranium. The U.S. claims that Iran has agreed to reduce the
stockpile from 10,000 kilograms to 300 kg for the next 10 years. Iran has not
yet confirmed that it has made such a commitment.
The duration of the nuclear deal will be
for 15 years. The Barack Obama administration was pressing for a 20-year deal.
Under the interim deal, Iran will not have to dismantle any of its existing
nuclear facilities. The Obama administration had initially demanded the
dismantling of a few. After 15 years, Iran will be allowed to produce as much
enriched uranium as it wants to. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will be
allowed to conduct research and development on advanced centrifuges. Iran,
being a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), has the “inalienable
right of all the parties to the treaty to develop, research, produce, and use
of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination”.
On March 20, Obama took the
unprecedented step of issuing a video appeal to the Iranian people on the occasion
of Navroz, the Iranian new year. He said a nuclear deal would open up a
brighter future for the people of Iran. At the same time, he warned that
Iranians would face more sanctions and isolation if their government did not
agree to a deal. A “reasonable deal”, he promised, would open up hitherto
closed vistas for Iranians in various fields. Obama once again cited the “fatwa
against the development of nuclear weapons” issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After the signing of the nuclear deal, Zarif reiterated
that the country’s nuclear programme “has always been and always will remain
exclusively peaceful”.
When Hassan Rouhani assumed office as
President of Iran in 2013, he pledged to “reconcile with the world”. The
backing of Ayatollah Khamenei has been crucial to the success of the Iran-U.S.
nuclear talks so far. As otherwise, hardliners in Iran would not have agreed to
some of the conditions put forth in the preliminary deal. The Obama
administration wanted Iran to curtail its missile programme. Iran, it seems,
has stood its ground on this issue. In the face of emerging threats in the
region, missile defence is crucial for Iran’s security.
The U.S. has promised to lift most of
the draconian sanctions it has imposed on Iran after the framework agreement
comes into force. Obama has the authority to lift some of the sanctions with
immediate effect. The sanctions had a serious impact on Iran’s economy,
affecting almost all the key sectors.
Zarif described the agreement as a
victory and said it demonstrated that Iran “will never bow to pressure”. There
were celebrations on the streets of Tehran when the agreement was announced.
From the details emerging out of the U.S. interpretation of the interim
agreement, it is possible that Iran has made quite a few concessions but as the
U.S.-Iranian commentator Trita Parsi observed: “Small minds will obsess over
what has been given. Great minds will celebrate over what has been gained. We
are steering a clear path to a peaceful resolution to the nuclear dispute.” Before
the final deal is clinched, Washington may try to squeeze Tehran even further.
The “fact sheet” released by Washington states that “important implementation
details are still subject to negotiations, and nothing is agreed upon until everything
is agreed upon”.
Iran has already agreed to be subjected
to intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. The “core”
of Iran’s heavy water reactor in Arak will be removed and the facility will be
redesigned so that it can produce only non-weapons- grade plutonium. The Fordow
nuclear plant will be turned into a nuclear research centre without fissile
material.
In 2010, Iran agreed to a proposal by
Presidents Lula da Silva of Brazil and Recep Erdogan of Turkey for the despatch
of 50 per cent of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for higher
enriched uranium for medical use and research. The Obama administration
rejected that proposal out of hand and instead imposed additional sanctions on
Iran.
Although the joint statement released at
Lausanne by Zarif and the European Union (E.U.) foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini talks about the lifting of all sanctions, including those imposed by
the U.N. Security Council and the E.U., following the implementation of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, there is no guarantee that the sanctions will be
lifted in the immediate future. According to the fact sheet released by the
U.S., the sanctions will only be “suspended” and if the U.S. and its allies
conclude at any time that Iran has violated the terms of the deal, then the
“sanctions will immediately snap into place”. Obama had earlier specified that
the aim of the agreement was “to cut off every pathway that Iran could take to
develop a nuclear weapon”. Any agreement with Iran, he said, “would not be
based on trust” but instead on “unprecedented verification”.
At a conference in the White House soon
after the deal was announced, Obama gloated that the deal was the result of
“the toughest sanctions in history”. He issued a warning that if Iran failed to
implement any aspect of the deal, then “all options” were on the table for him
and future Presidents. “All options open” has been a favourite term for U.S.
Presidents and politicians. It means the option to resort to war mainly against
oil-rich countries in West Asia. Zarif has restated his government’s demand for
immediate relief from U.N. sanctions and the urgent need to “terminate” and not
just suspend E.U. sanctions. The P5+1 wants the IAEA to first certify that
Iran’s nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes and does not have “possible
military dimensions” . There is optimism in Iran that the bulk of the sanctions
will be lifted within a year.
Obama was quick to telephone Netanyahu
to assure him that Israel’s security will never be compromised and that he was still
concerned about Iran’s “destabilising policies”. He also talked to Iran’s other
rivals in the region, notably the rulers of the Gulf kingdoms, and assured them
of the U.S.’ abiding security relations with them. Obama will be hosting a
summit of all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders at the White House
soon. Saudi Arabia, like Israel, is vehemently opposed to Iran. The Saudis have
made veiled threats about seeking a nuclear deterrent of their own if the U.S.
cosied up to Iran. Obama had no words of criticism for Israel’s growing nuclear
arsenal and its aggressive
policies.
Even as the U.S. and Iran were
finalising the draft agreement, Saudi Arabia launched an unprovoked aggression
against Yemen citing Iran’s involvement in that country. Israel will be working
overtime to stymie the nuclear deal with the help of its influential friends in
the U.S. Congress and media. Netanyahu said the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal posed an
“existential threat” to Israel’s security.
(Published in Frontline.in)
No comments:
Post a Comment