If the nuclear deal
and the lifting of sanctions go through, it will help India, strategically and
Economically Few
developments have occupied international attention since the Iranian Revolution
in 1979, as the hostility between Iran on the one hand and the US and Israel on
the other. Tensions in US-Iran relations escalated when Iranian students
supporting the Ayatollah
Khomeini-led
revolution attacked the US embassy on November 4, 1979, taking hostage 52 US
diplomats for 444 days. The students called their action “Conquest of the
American Spy Den”.
The students who
engineered the hostage crisis, painstakingly put together shredded documents,
which revealed the extent of CIA interference in Iran’s domestic affairs. The
US had turned a blind eye to and tacitly condoned the atrocities of the Shah’s
intelligence services, Savak. The Khomeini dispensation viewed Israel’s role
similarly. Relations continued to deteriorate, with the Iranians calling the US
the “Great Satan” and vowing to eliminate Israel. The US, in turn labelled Iran
as constituting an “axis of evil”. Covert operations fomenting violence were
undertaken extensively, by all concerned.
Intensified
operations
The intensity of
these operations increased after Iran went about obtaining nuclear weapons
capabilities, primarily through uranium enrichment, with crucial assistance
from Pakistan’s AQ Khan. There are credible reports that President Barack Obama
had expressed concern about Israeli involvement in the killing of five Iranian
nuclear scientists. Iran responded with attacks on Israeli missions in countries
ranging from Argentina and Azerbaijan to India and Thailand. The US contributed
by actions like injecting a Stuxnet virus to disable Iran’s enrichment
programme for months. Saudi Arabia and Iran have fought proxy battles across
the Islamic world, most notably in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. “Cut off the
head of the snake (Iran),” the Saudi monarch advised Gen David Petraeus.
The US has spared no
effort to scuttle Iran’s nuclear programme. The UN Security Council passed 10
resolutions against Iran involving banking sanctions, freezing of financial assets,
travel restrictions on sanctioned persons, freezing of assets of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard, and banning all missile- and nuclear-related cooperation. These resolutions
were accompanied by stringent banking, insurance, shipping and other sanctions
imposed by the US and the European Union, crippling energy-related cooperation with
Iran, especially for major partners such as China, Japan, South Korea and
India. Within two years of tightening the global sanctions regime in 2011,
Iranian oil exports fell from 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to a mere
7,00,000 bpd, with Iran’s economy actually shrinking by 5.5 per cent. This
trend has continued. Despite these sanctions, Iran has expanded its influence
across its neighbourhood, challenging Saudi-US policies effectively in Syria,
while finding itself on the same side as the Americans in confronting the ISIL challenge
in Iraq.
Practical
perspectives
While the Obama
administration recognised that an adversarial Iran will be a thorn in its flesh
if things are not sorted out, the Iranians realised that their larger national
interests are better served by accommodation on the nuclear issue, which is not
seen as surrender. The broad parameters of the framework agreed upon recently
in Lausanne meet these requirements. Iran has agreed to restrict its uranium
enrichment 3.67 per cent — adequate for civilian use, but well below weapons
grade. It has installed 19,000 centrifuges for enrichment, with around 10,000
currently in use. One of its underground facilities, located at Fordow, near the
city of Qom, will stop all enrichment for 15 years. There will be similar
restrictions on Iran’s only plutonium reactor. Iran will also have to limit its
research and development activities in a manner that precludes quick weaponisation
and grant access for comprehensive inspections of its nuclear activities by the
IAEA.
In return for the
restrictions that Iran has agreed to, the US and other permanent members of the
Security Council, together with the members of the European Union, would lift nuclear-related
sanctions on Iran. This would bring huge relief to Iran and lead to a restoration
of its oil sales, and promote investments in its vital oil and gas sectors.
While the framework for the nuclear deal has been agreed upon, the exact
sequencing of the lifting of sanctions still remains to be finalized This is
not going to be an easy task, but will have to be completed by June 30, if
further sanctions proposed by the US Senate Banking Committee are to be
pre-empted. President Obama is going to have a very difficult time getting
these proposals endorsed by the US Senate, where the Republican majority and
even quite a few in his own Democratic Party remain implacably hostile. On the
other hand,, he would like to see the ending of sanctions on Cuba and Iran that
he has wisely promoted, as a “legacy” of his presidency.
Israel’s
objections
Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged as the most formidable opponent of the
proposed nuclear deal, claiming that its adoption would set the stage for the destruction
of Israel by a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu enjoys the support of not only powerful Jewish
groups in the US, but also of Sunni Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. Interestingly,
what we are now witnessing is the strengthening of a Saudi-led, Egypt-backed grouping
of Sunni Islamic countries, working in tandem with Israel, to curb Iranian influence.
However, several members of the Israeli security establishment do not share Netanyahu’s
dire forebodings about the Iran nuclear deal. Israel is estimated to possess an
arsenal of around 200 nuclear weapons. It strains one’s credulity how a
hypothetical Iranian arsenal of a few nuclear weapons, after three decades, can
dare to pose a threat.
The end of sanctions
against Iran will benefit India significantly. It will substantially boost
our exports of
refined petroleum products and open the doors to investments in Iran’s oi and
natural gas sector, with prospects for an undersea gas pipeline. A
normalization of Iran-US relations will also clear the deck for dealing jointly
with Taliban-style extremism and terrorism
across our western borders.
(Published in
thehindu.com/opinions)
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