Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts

Thursday, 4 June 2015

United on border - India Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement

Former Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee once commented: “You can change friends but not neighbours.” Divine dispensation, geography and a tortuously shared history destined India and Bangladesh to be neighbours. Just as in a community, quarrelsome neighbours sharing the same geopolitical landscape do not lend to good neighbourly relations or peace in their neighbourhood. The irony is that having coexisted peacefully and harmoniously within what for millennia was known as the Indian subcontinent, a few centuries of colonial rule by “gora sahibs” from distant shores transformed these peoples into each other’s sworn enemies. When the colonial masters realised that their much touted jewel in the imperial crown had become a millstone around their war ravaged neck, they gave in to the increasingly strident demands for independence by their subjects and quit these shores, only after presiding over the partition of this once united domain into three entities, India and West and East Pakistan. The two wings of the newly created Pakistan, separated by over a thousand miles of Indian territory, unnaturally configured as they were when torn apart in August 1947 from the mainland of which they had historically been an integral part, could not have remained together in an everlasting union.

So, after a bloody nine month War of Liberation in 1971, the Bengalis of East Pakistan divorced the West Pakistani partner to set up house independently as Bangladesh. However, the issue of the contentious boundaries between them remained and continued to fester. After Independence in August 1947, under the Radcliffe Award which divided the subcontinent, India shared its longest land border of 4,096 kilometres not with West Pakistan or China but with what emerged as East Pakistan. This was a tortuously complex border that cut mercilessly across communities that had coexisted for centuries, and indeed even households that had been one the night before.

Apart from the sheer length of the border, some cutting across rivers, the division also unwittingly spawned some strange creatures:
(1) enclaves of one country within the newly constituted national boundaries of the other (East Pakistani enclaves surrounded on all sides by Indian territory, and vice versa), in which the inhabitants were notionally citizens of the new countries to whom the land belonged, but totally isolated by virtue of their location, as the new country to which they found themselves belonging by virtue of Partition could not reach governance or services to their notional citizens while the national entities, which now found themselves saddled with these enclaves, refused to acknowledge these people as their own; and (2) adversely possessed lands (lands in possession of one or the other newly carved national entities which, under the award, were arbitrarily endowed to the other side, whether deliberately or inadvertently because the pen drawing the line on the map had a thick nib).

Just as in a housing development area land allocated to buyers has to be demarcated through a survey that formally marks the coordinates and perimeters that bound that piece of land, the partitioned subcontinent also required such boundary demarcation to take place, to formalize the principles of division that Sir Cyril Radcliffe, the person entrusted by the Crown in London to draw the lines across the map, in his wisdom had awarded to the reconstituted entities that emerged. Post Partition efforts at demarcation under the Firoz Khan Noon Jawaharlal Nehru accord of 1958 were unable to resolve these festering issues. Although border demarcation work proceeded with the Surveyors General of the two new national entities carrying on demarcation as per the Radcliffe Award, the strip maps (the entire length of the new borders was divided into manageable strips to make the survey work easier) continued to remain “unformalised”, with the plenipotentiaries of the two sides not signing on to them, whether deliberately or through mala fide “oversight”. It may be noted that not getting the plenipotentiaries to countersign the strip maps agreed upon by the respective Surveyors General left a dangerous situation for mischief because either side at any given point of time could contest that the demarcation in one or more strips had been inaccurately done. (Indeed, such a situation did arise in mid1995 but was contained before it escalated.)

So when Vajpayee enunciated this maxim, he was simply pointing to the practical necessity of arriving at a reasonable understanding with India’s immediate neighbours so that all sides could move away from debilitating distractions of managing contested borders and focus single mindedly on development and the uplift of their teeming populations out of the morass of poverty that plagued the entire region. While India’s relations with Pakistan continued to remain star crossed, the emergence of Bangladesh in 1971 presented an opportunity to get the relations with at least one neighbour right. Prime Ministers Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Indira Gandhi, of Bangladesh and India respectively, entered into a Land Boundary Agreement on May 16, 1974. That agreement laid down the principles of demarcating the borders that the Radcliffe Award had bequeathed to the two sides. The brutal assassination of Mujibur Rahman along with almost his entire family and some of his most trusted lieutenants and colleagues on August 15, 1975, effectively stalled further efforts to bring the issue to closure. Relations between India and Bangladesh became subject to mood swings depending on who was in power in Bangladesh. As a general rule, democratic India got on better with the Awami League (the party founded by Mujibur Rahman) which had spearheaded the Liberation Movement in East Pakistan, while relations with other, more authoritarian minded, parties/forces in power tended to be indifferent at best.

While some progress was made in improving relations with the Awami League, which headed a coalition government in 1996 after having remained in the wilderness for almost 18 years (the Ganges Treaty and the Chittagong Hill Tracts Accord, which ended the insurgency there, were arrived at in December 1996 and in 1997 respectively), the two governments were unable to move significantly forward on other, more challenging, issues because of the weak nature of the coalition dispensations obtaining on both sides then.

Relations between the two countries deteriorated significantly during 2001-06 when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) came to power in Bangladesh. However, a fresh opportunity presented itself when Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League were reelected to power with a huge mandate in December 2008. The two countries immediately began to engage earnestly to resolve the festering bilateral problem. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited India in January 2010, a game changing visit when both neighbours turned a critically important corner in defining normatively what their relations should be. The Joint Communique issued on January 10, 2010, was a remarkable document in that it clearly laid out the road map the two countries would follow to set right all the issues that had for long been bothering them, including the boundary issue inherited under the Radcliffe Award. After painstaking negotiations for a comprehensive package deal, on September 7, 2011, during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the two sides signed a Protocol to the 1974 agreement.

The Bangladesh Parliament ratified the agreement almost immediately, but the process was stalled as a progressively weakening coalition government in India was unable to push through the complex ratification process in the Indian Parliament. As India inched towards the next parliamentary elections in 2014, completion of the ratification process by the Congressl ed United Progressive Alliance-II government receded progressively. It was, therefore, perhaps not entirely inappropriate that it was left to those who inherited the mantle of Vajpayee to assume the task of completing what the Congress led government had started. The unanimity with which the Rajya Sabha (on May 6) and the Lok Sabha (on May 7) approved the Constitution (100th Amendment) Bill, operationalizing the Bangladesh India Land Boundary Agreement, 1974, and the 2011 Protocol, was a historic, game changing development in the tortuous post Partition annals of this fragmented subcontinent. It imparts to the historic accord the strongest foundations upon which to build any magnificent edifice that leaders and peoples on both sides can dare to dream. It testifies to the singular visionary statesmanship of the Prime Minster of India that he saw it fit to overrule narrower political calculations that had been contemplated mercifully very fleetingly for the larger common good of all peoples. It also put to rest the malevolent daemons that had been unleashed by the Radcliffe Award.

The entire process was by no means easy, as various local conflicting interests and sometimes viscerally antagonistic opposition at different levels had to be dealt with, pacified and won over. One must congratulate the various field officials on both sides who carried out the job entrusted to them by the leadership of the two sides. That they had clear instructions on how they should address the resolution process was of critical importance. Whenever difficulties were encountered, the officials were given full support and backing and clear instructions by the chain of command at all levels as was required. Without all this coming together, this stupendous task would not have been fulfilled. But, above all, it has to be recognised that without the visionary leadership on both sides that eschewed narrower political considerations in the interest of the larger common good, this would not have been possible.

Space for mutual comfort
Historically, undemarcated international borders have been known to spawn or aggravate other areas of dispute. Conversely, resolution of such contestations helps restore harmony. The resolution of this border dispute has, according to first reports, been welcomed by a vast majority of the peoples on both sides, irrespective of internal political divisions. It has already widened the space of mutual comfort and mutual trust that are essential prerequisites for cooperation and collaboration in any activity. The two countries can now focus on achieving the other broader and far reaching goals they had set for themselves in the Framework Agreement for Cooperation signed on September 7, 2011. Among other things, that remarkable document envisaged broader sub regional cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (to begin with) on a wide range of areas/sectors. While the process commenced in 2012, it was tentative and hesitant, with non-completion of agreements already arrived at. One may expect to see more determined and reinvigorated forward movement on a broad range of new initiatives that embrace common river basin management, trade and connectivity expansion, joint or sole investments in important projects and medium and long term energy security without which the new industrial revolution in this region cannot happen.

A more humane border management that will enable both sides to control illegal cross border activities and encourage legal, mutually beneficial movements is expected. In a sense, this is the first, and most important, prerequisite for moving towards an economically integrated region.

On another, perhaps more significant level, this resolution stands out as an exemplar of visionary statesmanship, common sense and pragmatism that deserves closer scrutiny and emulation by others. It sends out a clear signal to others in the region that intractable issues bedevilling bilateral relations can be resolved if addressed with sincerity, pragmatism, good sense and firm political will, keeping in mind the greater common good of all peoples concerned.

Tariq A. Karim is a former High Commissioner of Bangladesh to India.



Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Interview with Anil Gupta on Modi's counter balancing acts with China and Japan

'A Balancing Act' Anil K. Gupta talks about PM Modis Japan visit and its implications
Anil K. Gupta is the Michael Dingman Chairin Strategy and Globalisation at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park. The author of six books, including most recently The Silk Road Rediscovered (Wiley, 2014), he is a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on Emerging Multinationals and has been ranked by Thinkers50 as one of the "world's most influential living management thinkers.

"What will be the impact of the growing Indo-Japan relationship on India's economic and strategic partnership with China?
The impact will be quite positive. China is very keen to play a significant role in India's infrastructure build-up. The prospects of Japanese companies playinga sizable role makes the Chinese even more keen not to be left out. It's very telling that the main front-page headline of China Daily on Sept. 4, the last day of Modi's visit to Japan, read:"Chinese Companies Keen to Play Important Role in India's High Speed Rail." Obviously, the Chinese leadership is sending an important signal. The economic relationship between India and Japan and that between India and China is anything but zero-sum. Even on the geopolitical front, the impact on the India-China relationship will be positive. China doesn't gain anything by India becoming a stronger ally of Japan and the US. Thus, any prospect of closer India-Japan and India-US relations makes the Chinese nervous and more keen to send positive signals to India. Of course, China is unlikely to be happy that India will increase strategic cooperation with Japan. However, China gains nothing by accelerating the formation of an even closer defense relationship between India and Japan. That's why, throughout Modi's Japan trip, the Chinese media blamed (Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe for trying to divide India and China and refrained from saying anything negative about Modi himself.

Are there any trade and industrial segments in China that will lose out to Japan due to the closer Indo-Japanese engagement?
Not really. The economic relationships are entirely non-zero-sum. It's better for India to not rely overly on just one partner. The larger the number of economic partners India cultivates, the better it is for the country. Modi knows it well and played this game beautifully in Gujarat.

Will China ignore the "expansionist" tag Modi indirectly gave to it during his Japanese lecture? What could be its impact?
Looking at the reporting in the Chinese media, it's clear that China is already ignoring it. China knows that Modi is a staunch nationalist. It also knows that Modi has made similar statements in the past, for example while campaigning in theNorth east (India). China wants to live with Modi. It also knows that strong leaders such as Xi and Modi may find it easier to resolve the border disagreements amicably than weak leaders such as Hu (Jintao) and (Manmohan) Singh. Do you consider Modi's posture as an attempt to engage Japan as a counterbalance to China?I wouldn't use the term "counterbalance." Modi enjoys an excellent personal relationship with Abe. Thus, his posture is a natural outcome of the mutual affection between the two leaders. That said, Modi knows that it's better for India to play all sides - Japan, China, Russia, Europe and, of course, the US. Making all of them eager to engage with India increases the likelihood that India will get the sweetest possible deals. Just look at the agreement regarding uranium signed by Modi and (Australian Prime Minister Tony) Abbott last week.

Do you think India can successfully engage with China and Japan at the same time? What are the areas where India-China engagement will grow irrespective of India's trade and economic relations with the rest of the world?
Absolutely, yes. Even as the CM of Gujarat,Modi enjoyed excellent rapport with Abe and, yet, he visited China four times and attracted more Chinese FDI into Gujarat than any other state. Modi is a shrewd"businessman" and knows how to leverage the spillovers from one relationship onto another.Over the next five years, the China-India engagement will be primarily around infrastructure projects, the sourcing and manufacture of railway rolling stock and power equipment. As India's infrastructure starts becoming stronger, we can expect FDI from China across a larger spectrum of industries. By 2020, I won't be surprised if Chinese companies begin to manufacture in India for export back to China. By then, the wage gap between India and China willbe even larger. Also, India's engineering and management skills are very strong. The only major weakness that India suffers from is infrastructure. Once this weakness is taken care of, we'll begin to see a new paradigm.

Is there a solution to the growing imbalance in India-China trade?

Not over the next five years. However, from2020 onwards we should expect to see rapid growth in the export of manufacturedgoods from India to China. Also, India will become a bigger breadbasket for the world. In contrast, China will remain an agriculture importer for a long time. Thus, Ialso expect the emergence of sizable exports of agricultural products (grains as well as beef) from India to China. All of thisis counter-intuitive thinking but entirely logical and highly probable.(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 06-10-2014)

Saturday, 18 January 2014

UNSC and Permanent membership for India

(This Article contains information under the GS mains paper-2 syllabus. Especially under the topic ‘Important International institutions, agencies and for theirstructure, mandate’)

UNSC AND PERMANENT MEMBERSHIP FOR INDIA IN THE COUNCIL
Contents:    
1.      Introduction
2.      Features of UNSC
3.      Powers of UNSC
4.      UNSC- So Far
5.      Reforms in the Security Council
6.      India’s role
7.      Why India Should given permanent membership in the Expansion process
8.      Why India could be opposed to the seat in the Expansion process
9.      Conclusion

1. Introduction
·         To do world police work greater participation needed. Present scenarios are different from 1945, expansion of UNSC permanent membership required for interest of different regions.
·         Two Issues: Traditional (Long process)- Border, water disputes, resource sharing; can solve diplomatically. Non-Traditional (Evolves periodically)- New radical ideologies, terrorism, Nuclear weapons threat, piracy, internal conflicts etc; Major Interventions needed.
·         UNs failure to tackle and USA’s unilateral policy on conflict regions with its vast military and weapons enables the need for more engagements from regional powers.
·         The need for reforms in SC got attention by1992. In 1997, Kofi Annan, then Secretary General set up high level committee for reconstituting the UNSC
·         UN listed the requirements and authorized US to judge the potential member based on the following seven points in Sep2005: Commitment to democracy and human rights, Size of economy, Military capacity, Financial contribution to the UN, Contribution to UN peace keeping, Record on Non-Proliferation and Counter terrorism
·         Recent western interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Libya on the reasons of WMD, Nuclear disarmament manipulates UNs lack of greater role and the need for revamp.
2. Features of UNSC
·         One of the six organs of UNs setup in 1945, charged with maintenance of International Peace and Security
·         Based on UNs Charted(Constitutional provisions) the various actions exercised through resolutions in the UN General Assembly.
·         Total- 15members: Permanent-5Nos(P5 Countries), Non-permanent-10Nos
·         P5 countries- USA, UK, Russia, China, France. They have ‘Veto’ making powers, meaning a negative from P5 would prevent the resolution or adoption of proposals in UNGA.
·         Negative vote or ‘Veto’ also known ‘Great Power unanimity’.
·         So total International support and one ‘Veto’ = No Resolutions in UNGA. (USA is a Great rescuer of Israel on so many resolutions against it)
·         Non-Permanent Member Countries- 10nos, Elected by UNGA represents different regions and gives important proposals in UNSC. Elections hold for every 2yrs rotationally.
·         Minimum votes required for affirmative proposals in UNSC -9 of 15members. Abstention by a P5 cannot be a ‘Veto’.

3. Powers of UNSC
·         All powers as per UN Charter of 1945. UNSC is important decision making authority on the questions of global peace and security.
·         The council decides who is the aggressor, recommends various resolutions, Interrupts the war, arranges diplomatic peace talks, restores and maintains peace in conflict regions.
·         Actions like engaging peace keeping troops, economic sanctions, freezing of assets, barring imports and exports, sanctions of weapons, inspections on deadlier weapons etc.,
·         These powers executed through GA as proposed and drafted resolutions.
·         Others like admission of new members, exercise of trusteeship, recommend to appointment of General-Secretary and together with GA to elect judges of International Court of Justice.
4. UNSC – So Far
·         P5 with its ‘Veto’ played major role. Can be split into two Eras; before and after the disintegration of Soviet Bloc.
·         P5 acted on their own and their supports interests in conflict regions or who does favors to them.
·         Western blocs and Soviet bloc differed and acted against each other in the council ended in less resolutions in the UNGA(Till 1989 only 646Nos)
·         Good works of UNSC after 1989 – No of resolution reached more than 2000 till 2007.
·         Since 1972, the USA used more Vetoes than any other P5 on various issues made themselves ‘Super Power’. No one stopped it after Soviet Union disintegration and their less involvement in international issues later.
·         US vetoed to save Israel to save it from Islamist countries. UNGA made sanctions citing settlement in Palestine area, Attacks on civilians, disarming nuclear arms etc., they all vetoed by US.
·         US took war on Iraq in 2003 saying it possess WMD without UN official approval and proof.
·         General lack of willingness by UNSC not by any ‘Veto’ also ended in disastrous wars. (Durfur region of Sudan conflicts from 2003, Iran-Iraq wars(1980-88))
·         Since 1945 the ‘Veto used by P5: US-89, UK-32, France-18, Russia/USSR-123, and China-6.

5. Reforming the UNSC
·         Changing scenario of world power blocs, the reforms talks emerged. 1st resolution of reforming and expanding the UNSC came in 1992 in GA.
·         In 1997 high level committee setup by Kofi Annan and the report released by 2004 gave four major principles
(a)Increasing decision making authority, who contributes more to the UN financially, militarily, diplomatically.
(b)Bringing broader membership from the developing world.
(c) The shouldn’t impair the effectiveness of the SC.
(d)The shouldn’t increase the democratic and accountable nature of the body.
·         Apart all the developed and developing countries started asking for permanent membership for a greater role in world affairs and they pressed even to get in the assembly.
·         ‘Enemy Countries’ (Germany and Japan) as stated in Charter after the fall in WW-II argues they should be no more in that category.
·         They emerged as a great economic and political power seeks a berth in permanent membership. (Germany is a top head of EU and added itself as P5+1 to takes part in various regional issues)
·         G4- major runners for permanent membership was emerged to showcase its power and its willingness to do big role (G4- Brazil, Germany, India, Japan).
·         Other countries like Indonesia, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey etc., also want permanent membership for the interest of their regions.
·         Members of the assembly together desire expansion and reforms in the council because of its failure to tackle many conflicts.
6. India’s role
·         Gandhiji felt the unified India should become a ‘Veto’ making member in 1945. But our leaders are engaged with gaining independence from British.
·         Become Non-permanent member for the first time (1951-52).
·         So far Non-permanent membership of India- 7 Times (Recently 2011-2012).
·         India itself seeking permanent membership from 1994.
·         India 1st approached UNSC in 1948 on Kashmir issue, ended in resolution against India and never abided that, saying Simla Agreement has overtaken this.
·         UNSC did major roles on the Kashmir debates of 1957.
·         Worst time in UNSC during 1960-70. India complained about the China’s nuclear test of 1964 and asked UN seeking disarmament treaty. Instead it was asked to sign NPT but it never.
·         During crisis of East Pakistan-1971, India took military intervention claimed to stop the big genocide. Saved by ‘Veto’ of Soviet from imposing sanctions by UN.
·         Without the endorsement of UN, India intervened in Sri Lanka with its peace keeping force after the India-Sri Lanka Accord-1987.
·         It’s a strong functional initiative of UN and its organs. It supported the establishment of UNICEF, UNDP, and UNEP etc.
·         Though last two decade India’s role much improved in economic, inclusive, sustainable developments, diplomatic relations with neighbors and UN.


7.Why India should given permanent Membership
·         World’s largest liberal democracy, second most populated, high demographic dividend nation(60% in the age group of 15-59).
·         Ethnically biggest Hindu religious nation, 2nd most Muslims populated in the world.
·         Major regional power in the Indian ocean Region.
·         3rd largest Military power, constantly engaging with UN peace keeping (more than 50yrs) and regular contributor of troops to UN.
·         Major and regular financial contributor to the UN.
·         One of the top 10 economies. Potential to become 3rd largest within 30yrs. In terms of PPP, GDP is 4th biggest in the world according to World Bank report-2005.
·         Space, Missile, Nuclear power.
·         India holds the support of all P5 members. In its last tenure(2011-12) of Non-permanent membership election in UNGA it got 187 of 190 countries vote.
·         Proved it’s peaceful co-existence concept in communist bloc and free world  by leading the creation of NAM.
·         Other than peace loving country with non-aggression and non-interference as the cornerstone of its panchsheel policy.
8. Why India could be opposed to the seat in expansion process
·         Kashmir issue- Pakistan specifically complaining on India and its violations. Pak also not interested in expansion. Continuously opposing the reform process.
·         India violated previous resolutions and not listened to UN on so many issues(Kashmir, crisis of1971, Nuclear weapons test in 1974,1998)
·         India is nuclear weapons holder and not signed NPT.
·         One of 9 country not signed CTBT to ratify to become in force.
·         India and china’s border dispute issue persists for more than 25yrs and yet to be settled.
·         Hub for insurgencies and left wing extremism. Inability to tackle internal issues.
·         Economically per capita GDP is lowest in G20, 50% lower than Indonesia, the next lowest member.
9. Conclusion
·         India possess important attribute to global security makes the case for a permanent seat.
·         More diplomatic relation with regional relations supports the case.
·         High and young population, immense English speaking citizens, highly educated workforce, high volume of FDI may legitimize its membership.
·         Poverty reduction and more inclusive concepts should get priority.
·         Future of India’s quest in UNSC is in the hands of P5, greater co-operation with them would ensure that.

Name:Marudavanan.S
List of References:
1. IGNOU/Political Studies/Peace and Conflict Studies(MPSE-006), International Relations(MPS-002)
2. ibsa.in/e-books/grantstrategyindia
3. Research Journal of south Asian studies/Indian Aspiration of permanent membership in UNSC
4. nationalinterest.org/commentary/indias-tough-road-the-security-council-8305
5. thehindu.com/opinion (Several pages related to Security Council and India)
6. www.un.org/en/sc/
7. en.wikipedia.org/UNSC; Reforms of Security Council; NPT; CTBT